No strong effect of unconditional cash transfers on cognition

Chris Chambers

doi:https://doi.org/10.24072/pci.rr.100257

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No strong effect of unconditional cash transfers on cognition

Chris Chambers based on reviews by Charlotte Pennington and Matúš Adamkovič

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Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long-term evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Barnabas Szaszi, Bence Palfi, Gabor Neszveda, Aikaterini Taka, Péter Szécsi, Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, Margaret Sheridan https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4gyzh version 2

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Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long-term evidence from a randomized controlled trial

In this Registered Report, we investigated the impact of a poverty alleviation program on cognitive performance. We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial conducted on low-income, high-risk individuals in Liberia where a random half of the participants (n=251) received a $200 lump-sum unconditional cash transfer - equivalent approximately to 300% of their monthly income - while the other half (n= 222) did not. We tested both the short-term (2-5 weeks) and the long-term (12-13 months) impact of the treatment via several executive function measures. The observed effect sizes of cash transfers on cognitive performance (b = 0.13 for the short- and b = 0.08 for the long-term) were roughly four times smaller than suggested by prior non-randomized research. Bayesian analyses revealed that the overall evidence supporting the existence of these effects is inconclusive. A multiverse analysis showed that neither alternative analytical specifications nor alternative processing of the dataset changed the results consistently. However cognitive performance varied between the executive function measures, suggesting that cash transfers may affect the subcomponents of executive function differently.

unconditional cash transfer, scarcity, cognitive functioning, randomized controlled trial

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هل التخفيف من حدة الفقر يزيد الأداء المعرفي؟ أدلة قصيرة وطويلة الأجل من تجربة عشوائية محكومة

في هذا التقرير المسجل، قمنا بدراسة تأثير برنامج التخفيف من حدة الفقر على الأداء المعرفي. قمنا بتحليل بيانات من تجربة عشوائية محكومة أجريت على أفراد من ذوي الدخل المنخفض والمعرضين لمخاطر عالية في ليبيريا، حيث تلقى نصف المشاركين بشكل عشوائي (العدد = 251) مبلغًا إجماليًا غير مشروط يبلغ 200 دولار أمريكي كتحويل نقدي غير مشروط - أي ما يعادل حوالي 300% من دخلهم الشهري الدخل - في حين أن النصف الآخر (ن = 222) لم يفعل ذلك. قمنا باختبار تأثير العلاج على المدى القصير (2-5 أسابيع) والطويل (12-13 شهرًا) من خلال العديد من مقاييس الوظيفة التنفيذية. كانت أحجام التأثير الملحوظ للتحويلات النقدية على الأداء المعرفي (b = 0.13 على المدى القصير وb = 0.08 على المدى الطويل) أصغر بأربع مرات تقريبًا مما اقترحته الأبحاث غير العشوائية السابقة. كشفت تحليلات بايزي أن الأدلة الإجمالية التي تدعم وجود هذه التأثيرات غير حاسمة. أظهر تحليل الأكوان المتعددة أنه لا المواصفات التحليلية البديلة ولا المعالجة البديلة لمجموعة البيانات قد غيرت النتائج باستمرار. ومع ذلك، تباين الأداء المعرفي بين مقاييس الوظيفة التنفيذية، مما يشير إلى أن التحويلات النقدية قد تؤثر على المكونات الفرعية للوظيفة التنفيذية بشكل مختلف.

التحويل النقدي غير المشروط، الندرة، الأداء المعرفي، تجربة عشوائية محكومة

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¿Aliviar la pobreza aumenta el rendimiento cognitivo? Evidencia a corto y largo plazo de un ensayo controlado aleatorio

En este Informe Registrado, investigamos el impacto de un programa de alivio de la pobreza en el rendimiento cognitivo. Analizamos datos de un ensayo controlado aleatorio realizado en personas de bajos ingresos y alto riesgo en Liberia, donde la mitad aleatoria de los participantes (n=251) recibió una transferencia de efectivo incondicional de una suma global de $200, equivalente aproximadamente al 300% de su salario mensual. ingresos, mientras que la otra mitad (n= 222) no. Probamos el impacto del tratamiento tanto a corto plazo (2 a 5 semanas) como a largo plazo (12 a 13 meses) mediante varias medidas de la función ejecutiva. Los tamaños del efecto observado de las transferencias de efectivo sobre el rendimiento cognitivo (b = 0,13 para el corto y b = 0,08 para el largo plazo) fueron aproximadamente cuatro veces más pequeños de lo sugerido por investigaciones anteriores no aleatorias. Los análisis bayesianos revelaron que la evidencia general que respalda la existencia de estos efectos no es concluyente. Un análisis de multiversos mostró que ni las especificaciones analíticas alternativas ni el procesamiento alternativo del conjunto de datos cambiaron los resultados de manera consistente. Sin embargo, el rendimiento cognitivo varió entre las medidas de la función ejecutiva, lo que sugiere que las transferencias de efectivo pueden afectar los subcomponentes de la función ejecutiva de manera diferente.

transferencia monetaria incondicional, escasez, funcionamiento cognitivo, ensayo controlado aleatorio

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La réduction de la pauvreté augmente-t-elle les performances cognitives ? Preuves à court et à long terme issues d'un essai contrôlé randomisé

Dans ce rapport enregistré, nous avons étudié l'impact d'un programme de réduction de la pauvreté sur les performances cognitives. Nous avons analysé les données d'un essai contrôlé randomisé mené sur des individus à faible revenu et à haut risque au Libéria, dans lequel une moitié aléatoire des participants (n = 251) a reçu un transfert en espèces forfaitaire et inconditionnel de 200 $, soit l'équivalent d'environ 300 % de leur revenu mensuel. revenu - alors que l'autre moitié (n = 222) n'en avait pas. Nous avons testé l'impact à court terme (2 à 5 semaines) et à long terme (12 à 13 mois) du traitement via plusieurs mesures de la fonction exécutive. L’ampleur de l’effet observé des transferts monétaires sur les performances cognitives (b = 0,13 à court terme et b = 0,08 à long terme) était environ quatre fois inférieure à celle suggérée par des recherches antérieures non randomisées. Les analyses bayésiennes ont révélé que les preuves globales étayant l’existence de ces effets ne sont pas concluantes. Une analyse multivers a montré que ni les spécifications analytiques alternatives ni le traitement alternatif de l'ensemble de données ne modifiaient les résultats de manière cohérente. Cependant, les performances cognitives variaient entre les mesures de la fonction exécutive, ce qui suggère que les transferts monétaires peuvent affecter différemment les sous-composantes de la fonction exécutive.

transfert monétaire inconditionnel, rareté, fonctionnement cognitif, essai contrôlé randomisé

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क्या गरीबी उन्मूलन से संज्ञानात्मक प्रदर्शन बढ़ता है? यादृच्छिक नियंत्रित परीक्षण से लघु और दीर्घकालिक साक्ष्य

इस पंजीकृत रिपोर्ट में, हमने संज्ञानात्मक प्रदर्शन पर गरीबी उन्मूलन कार्यक्रम के प्रभाव की जांच की। हमने लाइबेरिया में कम आय, उच्च जोखिम वाले व्यक्तियों पर किए गए एक यादृच्छिक नियंत्रित परीक्षण के डेटा का विश्लेषण किया, जहां आधे प्रतिभागियों (एन = 251) को 200 डॉलर की एकमुश्त बिना शर्त नकद हस्तांतरण प्राप्त हुआ - जो उनके मासिक के लगभग 300% के बराबर है। आय - जबकि अन्य आधे (एन = 222) नहीं थी। हमने कई कार्यकारी कार्य उपायों के माध्यम से उपचार के अल्पकालिक (2-5 सप्ताह) और दीर्घकालिक (12-13 महीने) प्रभाव का परीक्षण किया। संज्ञानात्मक प्रदर्शन पर नकदी हस्तांतरण के देखे गए प्रभाव आकार (अल्पकालिक के लिए बी = 0.13 और लंबी अवधि के लिए बी = 0.08) पूर्व गैर-यादृच्छिक अनुसंधान द्वारा सुझाए गए से लगभग चार गुना छोटे थे। बायेसियन विश्लेषण से पता चला कि इन प्रभावों के अस्तित्व का समर्थन करने वाले समग्र साक्ष्य अनिर्णायक हैं। एक मल्टीवर्स विश्लेषण से पता चला कि न तो वैकल्पिक विश्लेषणात्मक विशिष्टताओं और न ही डेटासेट के वैकल्पिक प्रसंस्करण ने परिणामों को लगातार बदला। हालाँकि संज्ञानात्मक प्रदर्शन कार्यकारी कार्य उपायों के बीच भिन्न होता है, यह सुझाव देता है कि नकद हस्तांतरण कार्यकारी कार्य के उप-घटकों को अलग तरह से प्रभावित कर सकता है।

बिना शर्त नकद हस्तांतरण, कमी, संज्ञानात्मक कार्यप्रणाली, यादृच्छिक नियंत्रित परीक्षण

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貧困を緩和すると認知能力は向上しますか?ランダム化比較試験からの短期および長期の証拠

この登録報告書では、認知能力に対する貧困緩和プログラムの影響を調査しました。私たちは、リベリアの低所得、高リスクの個人を対象に実施されたランダム化比較試験のデータを分析しました。この試験では、参加者のランダムな半数（n=251）が、月々の約300％に相当する200ドルの無条件一括現金給付を受けました。収入はありましたが、残りの半数 (n= 222) は収入がありませんでした。私たちは、いくつかの実行機能測定を通じて、治療の短期的 (2 ～ 5 週間) と長期的 (12 ～ 13 か月) の影響をテストしました。認知能力に対する現金給付の観察された効果量（短期では b = 0.13、長期では b = 0.08）は、以前の非無作為化研究で示唆されているものよりおよそ 4 倍小さかった。ベイズ分析により、これらの効果の存在を裏付ける全体的な証拠は決定的ではないことが明らかになりました。多元宇宙分析では、代替の分析仕様もデータセットの代替処理も結果を一貫して変更しないことが示されました。ただし、認知パフォーマンスは実行機能測定値間で異なり、現金授受が実行機能の下位要素に異なる影響を与える可能性があることが示唆されています。

無条件現金給付、欠乏、認知機能、ランダム化比較試験

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O alívio da pobreza aumenta o desempenho cognitivo? Evidência de curto e longo prazo de um ensaio clínico randomizado

Neste Relatório Registrado, investigamos o impacto de um programa de alívio da pobreza no desempenho cognitivo. Analisamos dados de um ensaio clínico randomizado realizado em indivíduos de baixa renda e alto risco na Libéria, onde metade aleatória dos participantes (n = 251) recebeu uma transferência monetária incondicional de US$ 200 - equivalente a aproximadamente 300% de seu valor mensal. renda - enquanto a outra metade (n= 222) não. Testamos o impacto do tratamento a curto prazo (2 a 5 semanas) e a longo prazo (12 a 13 meses) por meio de diversas medidas de função executiva. Os tamanhos dos efeitos observados das transferências monetárias sobre o desempenho cognitivo (b = 0,13 para o curto e b = 0,08 para o longo prazo) foram aproximadamente quatro vezes menores do que o sugerido por pesquisas anteriores não randomizadas. As análises bayesianas revelaram que a evidência global que apoia a existência destes efeitos é inconclusiva. Uma análise multiverso mostrou que nem as especificações analíticas alternativas nem o processamento alternativo do conjunto de dados alteraram os resultados de forma consistente. No entanto, o desempenho cognitivo variou entre as medidas da função executiva, sugerindo que as transferências monetárias podem afetar os subcomponentes da função executiva de maneira diferente.

transferência incondicional de renda, escassez, funcionamento cognitivo, ensaio clínico randomizado

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Повышает ли сокращение бедности когнитивные способности? Краткосрочные и долгосрочные данные рандомизированного контролируемого исследования

В этом зарегистрированном отчете мы исследовали влияние программы борьбы с бедностью на когнитивные способности. Мы проанализировали данные рандомизированного контролируемого исследования, проведенного с участием лиц с низким доходом и высоким риском в Либерии, где случайная половина участников (n = 251) получила единовременный безусловный денежный перевод в размере 200 долларов США, что эквивалентно примерно 300% их ежемесячного дохода. доход - тогда как другая половина (n= 222) этого не сделала. Мы проверили как краткосрочное (2-5 недель), так и долгосрочное (12-13 месяцев) воздействие лечения с помощью нескольких показателей управляющих функций. Наблюдаемый размер воздействия денежных трансфертов на когнитивные способности (b = 0,13 в краткосрочной перспективе и b = 0,08 в долгосрочной перспективе) был примерно в четыре раза меньше, чем предполагалось в предыдущих нерандомизированных исследованиях. Байесовский анализ показал, что общие доказательства существования этих эффектов неубедительны. Анализ мультивселенной показал, что ни альтернативные аналитические спецификации, ни альтернативная обработка набора данных последовательно не изменили результаты. Однако когнитивные показатели различались в зависимости от показателя исполнительной функции, что позволяет предположить, что денежные трансферты могут по-разному влиять на подкомпоненты исполнительной функции.

безусловный трансферт денежных средств, дефицит, когнитивное функционирование, рандомизированное контролируемое исследование

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减轻贫困会提高认知能力吗？来自随机对照试验的短期和长期证据

在这份注册报告中，我们调查了扶贫计划对认知表现的影响。我们分析了一项针对利比里亚低收入、高风险个人进行的随机对照试验的数据，其中随机一半的参与者 (n=251) 收到了 200 美元的一次性无条件现金转移——大约相当于他们每月的 300%收入 - 而另一半 (n= 222) 则没有。我们通过多项执行功能测量测试了治疗的短期（2-5 周）和长期（12-13 个月）影响。观察到的现金转移对认知表现的影响大小（短期 b = 0.13，长期 b = 0.08）大约比先前非随机研究建议的小四倍。贝叶斯分析表明，支持这些影响存在的总体证据尚无定论。多元宇宙分析表明，替代的分析规范和数据集的替代处理都不会一致地改变结果。然而，执行功能测量之间的认知表现存在差异，这表明现金转移可能对执行功能的各个组成部分产生不同的影响。

无条件现金转移、稀缺性、认知功能、随机对照试验

Submission: posted 13 July 2022
Recommendation: posted 23 October 2022, validated 24 October 2022

Cite this recommendation as:
Chambers, C. (2022) No strong effect of unconditional cash transfers on cognition. Peer Community in Registered Reports, 100257. https://doi.org/10.24072/pci.rr.100257

This is a stage 2 based on:

Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long- term evidence from a randomized controlled trial
Barnabas Szaszi, Bence Palfi, Gabor Neszveda, Aikaterini Taka, Peter Szecsi, Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, Margaret Sheridan
https://osf.io/2r8a9/?view_only=1781fb681edc4cdeb61287172cd14ba2

Recommendation

Recent studies have revealed potential benefits of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on a variety of health and social outcomes, including self-reported happiness and life satisfaction (Haushofer & Shapiro, 2016), economic and financial well-being (Blattman et al., 2013; Baird et al., 2018) and educational attainment (Baird et al., 2016). Although the effects of UCTs do not always out-perform rigorous control conditions (Whillans & West, 2022), these findings prompt the question of whether the alleviation of poverty via UCTs can also influence cognitive processing and performance.

In the current study, Szaszi et al. analysed the results of a previous randomised trial of UCTs by Blattman et al. (2017) to test whether a $200 lump sum – equivalent to three months of income – administered to a sample of young men in Liberia carries both short- and long-term benefits for a range of executive functions, including attention, response inhibition, and working memory capacity. Overall, the results suggest minimal if any consequences of the intervention – the observed effects of UCTs on cognition were several times smaller than suggested by previous research, and the evidence for a positive effect was inconclusive. Extensive multiverse analyses showed that these findings were robust to a range of alternative analytical specifications, and the authors estimate that a sample size of nearly 5000 would be required to provide strong evidence.

In their Discussion, the authors explore a range of reasons for the negative findings compared with previous research, including the more rigorous and severe causal test enabled by the randomised trial design, the demographic homogeneity of the sample demographic, the use of pen-and-paper tests (cf. computerised tests in previous studies), and the delivery of a lump-sum cash transfer compared with a regular monthly installment. In addition, although the results were negative or inconclusive, there were hints that a positive effect of UCTs may be more evident in some cognitive domains than in others – in this case, potentially benefiting working memory more than inhibitory control. Further research would be required to confirm this hypothesis.

The Stage 2 manuscript was evaluated over one round of in-depth review. Based on the responses to the reviewers' comments, the recommender judged that the manuscript met the Stage 2 criteria and awarded a positive recommendation.

URL to the preregistered Stage 1 protocol: https://osf.io/k56yv

Level of bias control achieved: Level 2. At least some data/evidence that was used to answer the research question had been accessed and partially observed by the authors prior to Stage 1 acceptance, but the authors certified that they had not yet observed the key variables within the data that would be used to answer the research question AND they took additional steps to maximise bias control and rigour.

List of eligible PCI RR-friendly journals:

References

1. Haushofer, J. & Shapiro, J. (2016). The short-term impact of unconditional cash transfers to the poor: Experimental evidence from Kenya. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 13, 1973–2042. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw025

2. Blattman, C., Fiala, N. & Martinez, S. (2013) Generating skilled self-employment in developing countries: Experimental evidence from Uganda. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129, 697–752. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt057

3. Baird, S., McKenzie, D., & Özler, B. (2018). The effects of cash transfers on adult labor market outcomes. IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 8, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40176-018-0131-9

4. Baird, S., Chirwa, E., De Hoop, J., & Özler, B. (2016). Girl power: cash transfers and adolescent welfare: evidence from a cluster-randomized experiment in Malawi. In African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital (pp. 139-164). University of Chicago Press. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c13380/c13380.pdf

5. Whillans, A., & West, C. (2022). Alleviating time poverty among the working poor: A pre-registered longitudinal field experiment. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04352-y

6. Blattman, C., Jamison, J. C. & Sheridan, M. (2017). Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia. American Economic Review, 107, 1165–1206. http://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150503

7. Szaszi, B., Palfi, B., Neszveda, G., Taka, A., Szecsi, P., Blattman, C., Jamison, J. C., & Sheridan, M. (2022). Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long-term evidence from a randomized controlled trial. Stage 2 Registered Report, acceptance of Version 2 by Peer Community in Registered Reports. https://psyarxiv.com/4gyzh

Conflict of interest:
The recommender in charge of the evaluation of the article and the reviewers declared that they have no conflict of interest (as defined in the code of conduct of PCI) with the authors or with the content of the article.

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Evaluation round #1

DOI or URL of the report: https://psyarxiv.com/4gyzh

Author's Reply, 08 Oct 2022

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Decision by Chris Chambers, posted 06 Aug 2022, validated 24 Oct 2022

The two reviewers who assessed the Stage 1 submission kindly returned to evaluate the completed Stage 2 manuscript. As you will see, both are positive and constructive, and based on my own reading the manuscript comes close to meeting the Stage 2 criteria. The reviews highlight a range of minor-to-moderate issues to address in revision, including presentation (and verification) of the results, increasing the depth of synthesis and precision of critical evaluation in the Discussion (including additional consideration of limitations), and justification of specific claims. The reviewers also note several parts that would benefit from presentational improvements. In revising, please ensure that the manuscript fully conforms to the the PCI RR TOP policy, particularly in terms of data accessibility.

Based on these reviews, I am happy to invite a revision and point-by-point response to the reviewers.

No strong effect of unconditional cash transfers on cognition

Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long-term evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Abstract

Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long-term evidence from a randomized controlled trial

هل التخفيف من حدة الفقر يزيد الأداء المعرفي؟ أدلة قصيرة وطويلة الأجل من تجربة عشوائية محكومة

¿Aliviar la pobreza aumenta el rendimiento cognitivo? Evidencia a corto y largo plazo de un ensayo controlado aleatorio

La réduction de la pauvreté augmente-t-elle les performances cognitives ? Preuves à court et à long terme issues d'un essai contrôlé randomisé

क्या गरीबी उन्मूलन से संज्ञानात्मक प्रदर्शन बढ़ता है? यादृच्छिक नियंत्रित परीक्षण से लघु और दीर्घकालिक साक्ष्य

貧困を緩和すると認知能力は向上しますか?ランダム化比較試験からの短期および長期の証拠

O alívio da pobreza aumenta o desempenho cognitivo? Evidência de curto e longo prazo de um ensaio clínico randomizado

Повышает ли сокращение бедности когнитивные способности? Краткосрочные и долгосрочные данные рандомизированного контролируемого исследования

减轻贫困会提高认知能力吗？来自随机对照试验的短期和长期证据

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Evaluation round #1

Author's Reply, 08 Oct 2022

Decision by Chris Chambers, posted 06 Aug 2022, validated 24 Oct 2022

Reviewed by Charlotte Pennington, 21 Jul 2022

Reviewed by Matúš Adamkovič, 02 Aug 2022

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